WaterLevelPerformance - Division of Nearshore Research

November 18, 2009, at 12:04 AM by ptissot -

Changed lines 5-6 from:

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.

to:

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level. The models are evaluated based on a perfect prog approach for the wind predictions. While the performance of the NAM model was verified to be unbiased and of good quality for the stations below, the predictions are not perfect. Actual ANN water level predictions will be lower depending on the accuracy of the NAM wind predictions.

October 30, 2009, at 04:52 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 224-227 from:

ANN	99.93	99.61	99.05	97.63	96.86	95.26
Persistence Model	99.7	98.37	96.67	93.71	92.09	90.32
Tide Charts	85.97	87.01	87.01	87.00	87.0	86.97

to:

ANN	99.93	99.61	99.05	98.49	97.63	96.86	95.26
Persistence Model	99.7	98.37	96.67	95.45	93.71	92.09	90.32
Tide Charts	85.97	87.01	87.01	87.01	87.00	87.0	86.97

Changed lines 231-234 from:

ANN		4.4	5.1	6.2	6.7	7.5
Persistence Model	4.0	5.7	6.6	7.9	8.5	9.3
Tide Charts	10.7	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4

to:

ANN		4.4	5.1	5.7	6.2	6.7	7.5
Persistence Model	4.0	5.7	6.6	7.1	7.9	8.5	9.3
Tide Charts	10.7	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4

October 30, 2009, at 04:48 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 203-206 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	98.58	95.76	93.01	91.41	88.96	89.54	88.23
Persistence Model	96.56	91.45	86.13	82.72	78.83	76.23	73.82
Tide Charts	66.64	66.64	66.64	66.61	66.56	66.51	66.49

Changed lines 210-213 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN		7.0	8.4	9.1	9.9
Persistence Model	6.5	9.2	11.4	12.9	14.3	15.2	15.6
Tide Charts	15.9	15.9	15.9	15.9	15.9	15.9	15.9

October 30, 2009, at 04:31 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 181-185 from:

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.6	99.0	97.9	97.3	95.0	93.2
Persistence Model	99.2	97.8	95.9	94.0	89.7	86.9
Tide Charts	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.6	81.6

to:

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.6	99.0	97.9	97.3	95.0	93.2
Persistence Model	99.2	97.8	95.9	94.0	89.7	86.9
Tide Charts	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.6	81.6

Changed lines 188-192 from:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.4	7.6	8.3
Persistence Model	4.6	5.9	6.9	7.6	9.4	10.4
Tide Charts	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7

to:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.4	7.6	8.3
Persistence Model	4.6	5.9	6.9	7.6	9.4	10.4
Tide Charts	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7

October 30, 2009, at 04:29 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 34-38 from:

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.5	98.6	97.3	96.3	94.8	91.0
Persistence Model	98.8	96.1	93.5	91.7	89.1	84.2
Tide Charts	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3

to:

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.5	98.6	97.3	96.3	94.8	91.0
Persistence Model	98.8	96.1	93.5	91.7	89.1	84.2
Tide Charts	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3

Changed lines 41-45 from:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.3	5.5	6.3	6.9	7.6	8.8
Persistence Model	5.1	7.0	8.1	8.9	9.8	11.6
Tide Charts	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1

to:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.3	5.5	6.3	6.9	7.6	8.8
Persistence Model	5.1	7.0	8.1	8.9	9.8	11.6
Tide Charts	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1

October 30, 2009, at 04:27 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 13-17 from:

Prediction	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.97	99.95	99.97	99.9	99.6
Persistence Model	99.96	99.8	99.7	99.0	98.1
Tide Charts	84.3	84.3	78.5	84.3	84.3

to:

Prediction	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.97	99.95	99.97	99.9	99.6
Persistence Model	99.96	99.8	99.7	99.0	98.1
Tide Charts	84.3	84.3	78.5	84.3	84.3

Changed lines 20-24 from:

Prediction	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	1.8	2.1		3.5	4.2
Persistence Model	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.8	5.6
Tide Charts	11.1	11.1	12.0	11.1	11.1

to:

Prediction	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	1.8	2.1		3.5	4.2
Persistence Model	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.8	5.6
Tide Charts	11.1	11.1	12.0	11.1	11.1

October 30, 2009, at 03:37 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 7-11 from:

Sabine Pass

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

Bird Island

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 14-17 from:

ANN	97.5	96.0	94.0	92.9	91.7	90.9	89.6
Persistence Model	94.1	91.0	85.5	83.5	79.4	77.1	75.3
Tide Charts	70.4	70.4	70.3	70.3	70.2	70.2	70.2

to:

ANN	99.97	99.95	99.97	99.9	99.6
Persistence Model	99.96	99.8	99.7	99.0	98.1
Tide Charts	84.3	84.3	78.5	84.3	84.3

Changed lines 21-31 from:

ANN	6.1	7.1	8.1	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.6
Persistence Model	8.0	9.7	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.6
Tide Charts	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Port Aransas

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

ANN	1.8	2.1		3.5	4.2
Persistence Model	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.8	5.6
Tide Charts	11.1	11.1	12.0	11.1	11.1

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot

Bob Hall Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 35-38 from:

ANN	99.6	99.0	97.9	97.3	95.0	93.2
Persistence Model	99.2	97.8	95.9	94.0	89.7	86.9
Tide Charts	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.6	81.6

to:

ANN	99.5	98.6	97.3	96.3	94.8	91.0
Persistence Model	98.8	96.1	93.5	91.7	89.1	84.2
Tide Charts	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3

Added lines 41-61:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.3	5.5	6.3	6.9	7.6	8.8
Persistence Model	5.1	7.0	8.1	8.9	9.8	11.6
Tide Charts	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid

Eagle Point

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.25	97.00	94.54	93.12	90.94	89.52	88.22
Persistence Model	95.93	88.40	82.51	78.46	74.57	71.60	68.67
Tide Charts	70.35	70.37	70.38	70.37	70.34	70.29	70.26

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Changed lines 63-73 from:

ANN	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.4	7.6	8.3
Persistence Model	4.6	5.9	6.9	7.6	9.4	10.4
Tide Charts	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

Ingleside

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

ANN	4.6	6.5	7.8	8.5	9.2	9.6	10.0
Persistence Model	6.8	10.7	13.6	15.6	17.3	18.4	19.2
Tide Charts	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.2	16.2

Optimized by Samantha Quisenberry

USCG Freeport

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 77-80 from:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.6	97.7	96.5	94.6
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9	96.2	93.9	91.9	89.3
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9

to:

ANN	98.47	96.19	93.87	92.59	90.84	89.67	88.18
Persistence Model	96.65	91.30	86.90	84.44	80.90	78.25	75.89
Tide Charts	76.21	76.22	76.22	76.16	76.10	76.07	76.05

Changed lines 84-94 from:

ANN	2.5	3.8	4.8	5.7	6.4	7.1	7.9
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7	6.6	7.5	8.4	9.6
Tide Charts	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

Texas State Aquarium

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

ANN	5.5	7.2	8.3	8.8	9.4	9.8	10.2
Persistence Model	6.7	9.4	11.3	12.6	13.9	14.8	15.4
Tide Charts	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Galveston Pleasure Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 98-101 from:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

to:

ANN	96.89	94.55	92.02	90.94	89.3	88.56	87.23
Persistence Model	93.54	87.89	82.55	79.84	76.2	73.71	71.36
Tide Charts	70.86	70.87	70.86	70.81	70.8	70.76	70.76

Changed lines 105-115 from:

ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Bob Hall Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

ANN	6.6	7.9	9.0	9.4	9.9	10.2	10.5
Persistence Model	8.3	11.0	13.5	15.0	16.3	17.2	17.6
Tide Charts	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Ingleside

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 119-122 from:

ANN	99.5	98.6	97.3	96.3	94.8	91.0
Persistence Model	98.8	96.1	93.5	91.7	89.1	84.2
Tide Charts	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3

to:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.6	97.7	96.5	94.6
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9	96.2	93.9	91.9	89.3
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9

Changed lines 125-134 from:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.3	5.5	6.3	6.9	7.6	8.8
Persistence Model	5.1	7.0	8.1	8.9	9.8	11.6
Tide Charts	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid

Bird Island

to:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	2.5	3.8	4.8	5.7	6.4	7.1	7.9
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7	6.6	7.5	8.4	9.6
Tide Charts	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

Manchester Houston

Changed lines 140-143 from:

ANN	99.97	99.95	99.97	99.9	99.6
Persistence Model	99.96	99.8	99.7	99.0	98.1
Tide Charts	84.3	84.3	78.5	84.3	84.3

to:

ANN	96.70	93.29	90.34	88.75	86.88	85.90	84.90
Persistence Model	89.13	79.95	73.94	71.09	64.95	61.45	59.76
Tide Charts	65.58	65.59	65.63	65.63	65.61	65.58	65.60

Changed lines 147-155 from:

ANN	1.8	2.1		3.5	4.2
Persistence Model	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.8	5.6
Tide Charts	11.1	11.1	12.0	11.1	11.1

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot

Port Isabel

to:

ANN	7.4	9.5	10.8	11.5	12.2	12.6	12.9
Persistence Model	10.6	15.1	18.3	20.4	22.7	24.2	25.2
Tide Charts	19.7	19.7	19.6	19.7	19.7	19.7	19.7

Optimized by Cindy Valencia

Packery Channel

Changed lines 161-164 from:

ANN	99.93	99.61	99.05	97.63	96.86	95.26
Persistence Model	99.7	98.37	96.67	93.71	92.09	90.32
Tide Charts	85.97	87.01	87.01	87.00	87.0	86.97

to:

ANN	99.94	99.70	99.30	98.86	98.08	97.21	95.73
Persistence Model	99.91	98.55	98.66	97.47	96.25	95.05	93.30
Tide Charts	82.67	82.65	82.63	82.63	82.63	82.63	82.62

Changed lines 168-179 from:

ANN		4.4	5.1	6.2	6.7	7.5
Persistence Model	4.0	5.7	6.6	7.9	8.5	9.3
Tide Charts	10.7	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal & Sergey Reid

Galveston Pleasure Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

ANN	2.4	3.5	4.3	4.9	5.7	6.3	7.2
Persistence Model	2.6	3.8	4.8	5.5	6.3	7.0	7.8
Tide Charts	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Port Aransas

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 182-185 from:

ANN	96.89	94.55	92.02	90.94	89.3	88.56	87.23
Persistence Model	93.54	87.89	82.55	79.84	76.2	73.71	71.36
Tide Charts	70.86	70.87	70.86	70.81	70.8	70.76	70.76

to:

ANN	99.6	99.0	97.9	97.3	95.0	93.2
Persistence Model	99.2	97.8	95.9	94.0	89.7	86.9
Tide Charts	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.6	81.6

Changed lines 189-196 from:

ANN	6.6	7.9	9.0	9.4	9.9	10.2	10.5
Persistence Model	8.3	11.0	13.5	15.0	16.3	17.2	17.6
Tide Charts	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6

Packery Channel

to:

ANN	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.4	7.6	8.3
Persistence Model	4.6	5.9	6.9	7.6	9.4	10.4
Tide Charts	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

Port Arthur

Changed lines 203-206 from:

ANN	99.94	99.70	99.30	98.86	98.08	97.21	95.73
Persistence Model	99.91	98.55	98.66	97.47	96.25	95.05	93.30
Tide Charts	82.67	82.65	82.63	82.63	82.63	82.63	82.62

to:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Changed lines 210-213 from:

ANN	2.4	3.5	4.3	4.9	5.7	6.3	7.2
Persistence Model	2.6	3.8	4.8	5.5	6.3	7.0	7.8
Tide Charts	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4

to:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Changed lines 217-220 from:

Rockport

to:

Port Isabel

Changed lines 224-227 from:

ANN	99.88	99.84	99.74	99.31	98.31	97.10	94.86
Persistence Model	99.81	99.38	98.01	96.38	94.21	92.03	88.89
Tide Charts	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.01	80.00

to:

ANN	99.93	99.61	99.05	97.63	96.86	95.26
Persistence Model	99.7	98.37	96.67	93.71	92.09	90.32
Tide Charts	85.97	87.01	87.01	87.00	87.0	86.97

Changed lines 231-240 from:

ANN	1.9	3.0	3.7	4.6	5.5	6.3	7.4
Persistence Model	2.7	4.2	5.4	6.5	7.5	8.3	9.5
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Freeport

to:

ANN		4.4	5.1	6.2	6.7	7.5
Persistence Model	4.0	5.7	6.6	7.9	8.5	9.3
Tide Charts	10.7	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal & Sergey Reid

Rockport

Changed lines 245-248 from:

ANN	98.47	96.19	93.87	92.59	90.84	89.67	88.18
Persistence Model	96.65	91.30	86.90	84.44	80.90	78.25	75.89
Tide Charts	76.21	76.22	76.22	76.16	76.10	76.07	76.05

to:

ANN	99.88	99.84	99.74	99.31	98.31	97.10	94.86
Persistence Model	99.81	99.38	98.01	96.38	94.21	92.03	88.89
Tide Charts	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.01	80.00

Changed lines 252-255 from:

ANN	5.5	7.2	8.3	8.8	9.4	9.8	10.2
Persistence Model	6.7	9.4	11.3	12.6	13.9	14.8	15.4
Tide Charts	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0

to:

ANN	1.9	3.0	3.7	4.6	5.5	6.3	7.4
Persistence Model	2.7	4.2	5.4	6.5	7.5	8.3	9.5
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Changed lines 259-264 from:

Port Arthur

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

Sabine Pass

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 266-269 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	97.5	96.0	94.0	92.9	91.7	90.9	89.6
Persistence Model	94.1	91.0	85.5	83.5	79.4	77.1	75.3
Tide Charts	70.4	70.4	70.3	70.3	70.2	70.2	70.2

Changed lines 273-276 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	6.1	7.1	8.1	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.6
Persistence Model	8.0	9.7	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.6
Tide Charts	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0

Changed lines 280-284 from:

Eagle Point

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

Texas State Aquarium

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 287-290 from:

ANN	99.25	97.00	94.54	93.12	90.94	89.52	88.22
Persistence Model	95.93	88.40	82.51	78.46	74.57	71.60	68.67
Tide Charts	70.35	70.37	70.38	70.37	70.34	70.29	70.26

to:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

Changed lines 294-321 from:

ANN	4.6	6.5	7.8	8.5	9.2	9.6	10.0
Persistence Model	6.8	10.7	13.6	15.6	17.3	18.4	19.2
Tide Charts	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.2	16.2

Optimized by Samantha Quisenberry

Manchester

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	96.70	93.29	90.34	88.75	86.88	85.90	84.90
Persistence Model	89.13	79.95	73.94	71.09	64.95	61.45	59.76
Tide Charts	65.58	65.59	65.63	65.63	65.61	65.58	65.60

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	7.4	9.5	10.8	11.5	12.2	12.6	12.9
Persistence Model	10.6	15.1	18.3	20.4	22.7	24.2	25.2
Tide Charts	19.7	19.7	19.6	19.7	19.7	19.7	19.7

Optimized by Cindy Valencia

to:

ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

October 30, 2009, at 03:18 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 295-298 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	96.70	93.29	90.34	88.75	86.88	85.90	84.90
Persistence Model	89.13	79.95	73.94	71.09	64.95	61.45	59.76
Tide Charts	65.58	65.59	65.63	65.63	65.61	65.58	65.60

Changed lines 302-305 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	7.4	9.5	10.8	11.5	12.2	12.6	12.9
Persistence Model	10.6	15.1	18.3	20.4	22.7	24.2	25.2
Tide Charts	19.7	19.7	19.6	19.7	19.7	19.7	19.7

October 29, 2009, at 05:43 PM by sreid -

Added lines 286-307:

Manchester

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Optimized by Cindy Valencia

October 29, 2009, at 05:38 PM by sreid -

October 29, 2009, at 05:32 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-2 from:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3968-1.jpg

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/try2.jpg

October 29, 2009, at 05:00 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 273-276 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	99.25	97.00	94.54	93.12	90.94	89.52	88.22
Persistence Model	95.93	88.40	82.51	78.46	74.57	71.60	68.67
Tide Charts	70.35	70.37	70.38	70.37	70.34	70.29	70.26

Changed lines 280-283 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	4.6	6.5	7.8	8.5	9.2	9.6	10.0
Persistence Model	6.8	10.7	13.6	15.6	17.3	18.4	19.2
Tide Charts	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.2	16.2

October 29, 2009, at 04:11 PM by sreid -

Added lines 265-285:

Eagle Point

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Optimized by Samantha Quisenberry

September 21, 2009, at 03:14 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 220-223 from:

Port Arthur

to:

Freeport

Changed lines 228-231 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	98.47	96.19	93.87	92.59	90.84	89.67	88.18
Persistence Model	96.65	91.30	86.90	84.44	80.90	78.25	75.89
Tide Charts	76.21	76.22	76.22	76.16	76.10	76.07	76.05

Changed lines 235-238 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	5.5	7.2	8.3	8.8	9.4	9.8	10.2
Persistence Model	6.7	9.4	11.3	12.6	13.9	14.8	15.4
Tide Charts	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0

Added lines 242-264:

Port Arthur

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Optimized by Sergey Reid

September 11, 2009, at 04:45 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 163-166 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	96.89	94.55	92.02	90.94	89.3	88.56	87.23
Persistence Model	93.54	87.89	82.55	79.84	76.2	73.71	71.36
Tide Charts	70.86	70.87	70.86	70.81	70.8	70.76	70.76

Changed lines 170-174 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	6.6	7.9	9.0	9.4	9.9	10.2	10.5
Persistence Model	8.3	11.0	13.5	15.0	16.3	17.2	17.6
Tide Charts	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6

May 21, 2009, at 02:47 PM by sreid -

Added lines 220-242:

Port Arthur

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Optimized by Sergey Reid

May 07, 2009, at 04:19 PM by sreid -

May 07, 2009, at 04:11 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 194-196 from:

Optimized by

to:

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Rockport

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.88	99.84	99.74	99.31	98.31	97.10	94.86
Persistence Model	99.81	99.38	98.01	96.38	94.21	92.03	88.89
Tide Charts	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.01	80.00

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	1.9	3.0	3.7	4.6	5.5	6.3	7.4
Persistence Model	2.7	4.2	5.4	6.5	7.5	8.3	9.5
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

May 07, 2009, at 03:53 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 175-177 from:

Packery

to:

Packery Channel

Changed lines 183-186 from:

ANN	99.93	99.61	99.05	97.63	96.86	95.26
Persistence Model	99.7	98.37	96.67	93.71	92.09	90.32
Tide Charts	85.97	87.01	87.01	87.00	87.0	86.97

to:

ANN	99.94	99.70	99.30	98.86	98.08	97.21	95.73
Persistence Model	99.91	98.55	98.66	97.47	96.25	95.05	93.30
Tide Charts	82.67	82.65	82.63	82.63	82.63	82.63	82.62

Changed lines 190-193 from:

ANN		4.4	5.1	6.2	6.7	7.5
Persistence Model	4.0	5.7	6.6	7.9	8.5	9.3
Tide Charts	10.7	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4

to:

ANN	2.4	3.5	4.3	4.9	5.7	6.3	7.2
Persistence Model	2.6	3.8	4.8	5.5	6.3	7.0	7.8
Tide Charts	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4

May 07, 2009, at 03:02 PM by sreid -

Added lines 175-196:

Packery

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.93	99.61	99.05	97.63	96.86	95.26
Persistence Model	99.7	98.37	96.67	93.71	92.09	90.32
Tide Charts	85.97	87.01	87.01	87.00	87.0	86.97

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN		4.4	5.1	6.2	6.7	7.5
Persistence Model	4.0	5.7	6.6	7.9	8.5	9.3
Tide Charts	10.7	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4

Optimized by

October 15, 2008, at 04:45 PM by sreid -

October 15, 2008, at 02:41 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 120-123 from:

ANN	99.97	99.95	99.97	99.9	99.6
Persistence Model	99.96	99.8	99.7	99.0	98.1
Tide Charts	84.3	84.3	78.5	84.3	84.3

to:

ANN	99.97	99.95	99.97	99.9	99.6
Persistence Model	99.96	99.8	99.7	99.0	98.1
Tide Charts	84.3	84.3	78.5	84.3	84.3

Changed lines 127-130 from:

ANN	1.8	2.1		3.5	4.2
Persistence Model	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.8	5.6
Tide Charts	11.1	11.1	12.0	11.1	11.1

to:

ANN	1.8	2.1		3.5	4.2
Persistence Model	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.8	5.6
Tide Charts	11.1	11.1	12.0	11.1	11.1

Added lines 155-174:

Galveston Pleasure Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

October 10, 2008, at 03:16 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 141-144 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	99.93	99.61	99.05	97.63	96.86	95.26
Persistence Model	99.7	98.37	96.67	93.71	92.09	90.32
Tide Charts	85.97	87.01	87.01	87.00	87.0	86.97

Changed lines 148-151 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN		4.4	5.1	6.2	6.7	7.5
Persistence Model	4.0	5.7	6.6	7.9	8.5	9.3
Tide Charts	10.7	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4

October 10, 2008, at 02:49 PM by sreid -

Added lines 132-154:

Port Isabel

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal & Sergey Reid

July 09, 2008, at 06:32 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 99-102 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	99.5	98.6	97.3	96.3	94.8	91.0
Persistence Model	98.8	96.1	93.5	91.7	89.1	84.2
Tide Charts	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3

Changed lines 105-109 from:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.3	5.5	6.3	6.9	7.6	8.8
Persistence Model	5.1	7.0	8.1	8.9	9.8	11.6
Tide Charts	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1

July 08, 2008, at 03:07 PM by sreid -

Deleted lines 0-1:

Changed line 13 from:

to:

Changed line 34 from:

to:

Changed line 55 from:

to:

Changed line 76 from:

to:

Changed line 97 from:

to:

Changed line 118 from:

to:

July 07, 2008, at 04:18 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-2 from:

background-color: blue;

to:

July 07, 2008, at 01:48 PM by sreid -

July 07, 2008, at 12:33 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 70-71 from:

to:

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

July 01, 2008, at 03:49 PM by sreid -

July 01, 2008, at 12:17 PM by sreid -

June 30, 2008, at 02:56 PM by sreid -

June 30, 2008, at 02:43 PM by sreid -

Added lines 1-2:

background-color: blue;

June 30, 2008, at 02:37 PM by sreid -

June 30, 2008, at 02:14 PM by sreid -

Deleted line 0:

June 30, 2008, at 02:08 PM by sreid -

Added line 1:

June 30, 2008, at 02:06 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-3 from:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3968-1.jpg"

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3968-1.jpg

June 30, 2008, at 02:06 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-3 from:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3968-1.jpg

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3968-1.jpg"

June 30, 2008, at 02:05 PM by sreid -

Added line 1:

June 30, 2008, at 01:40 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 28-32 from:

Bob Hall Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

Port Aransas

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 36-39 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	99.6	99.0	97.9	97.3	95.0	93.2
Persistence Model	99.2	97.8	95.9	94.0	89.7	86.9
Tide Charts	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.6	81.6

Changed lines 43-51 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid

Texas State Aquarium

to:

ANN	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.4	7.6	8.3
Persistence Model	4.6	5.9	6.9	7.6	9.4	10.4
Tide Charts	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

Ingleside

Changed lines 57-60 from:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

to:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.6	97.7	96.5	94.6
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9	96.2	93.9	91.9	89.3
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9

Changed lines 64-73 from:

ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Ingleside

to:

ANN	2.5	3.8	4.8	5.7	6.4	7.1	7.9
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7	6.6	7.5	8.4	9.6
Tide Charts	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9

Texas State Aquarium

Changed lines 77-80 from:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.6	97.7	96.5	94.6
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9	96.2	93.9	91.9	89.3
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9

to:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

Changed lines 84-96 from:

ANN	2.5	3.8	4.8	5.7	6.4	7.1	7.9
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7	6.6	7.5	8.4	9.6
Tide Charts	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9

Port Aransas

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Bob Hall Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 98-101 from:

ANN	99.6	99.0	97.9	97.3	95.0	93.2
Persistence Model	99.2	97.8	95.9	94.0	89.7	86.9
Tide Charts	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.6	81.6

to:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Changed lines 105-111 from:

ANN	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.4	7.6	8.3
Persistence Model	4.6	5.9	6.9	7.6	9.4	10.4
Tide Charts	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

to:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid

June 30, 2008, at 01:34 PM by sreid -

Added line 25:

June 30, 2008, at 01:24 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 46-47 from:

Optimized by Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid

to:

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid

Changed lines 112-114 from:

to:

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

Changed line 134 from:

Optimized by Philippe Tissot

to:

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot

June 30, 2008, at 01:19 PM by sreid -

Changed line 130 from:

ANN		1.8	2.1	NaN^?		3.5	4.2

to:

ANN		1.8	2.1			3.5	4.2

June 26, 2008, at 09:59 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 25-26 from:

to:

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Changed lines 46-47 from:

to:

Optimized by Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid

Changed lines 67-69 from:

to:

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Changed line 134 from:

to:

Optimized by Philippe Tissot

June 26, 2008, at 04:46 PM by sreid -

Added line 2:

June 26, 2008, at 04:45 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-3 from:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3-1.jpg

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3968-1.jpg

June 26, 2008, at 04:33 PM by sreid -

Added line 1:

June 26, 2008, at 04:33 PM by sreid -

June 26, 2008, at 04:17 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-2 from:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3-2-1-1.jpg

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3-1.jpg

June 26, 2008, at 04:06 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-2 from:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3-2-1.jpg

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3-2-1-1.jpg

June 26, 2008, at 04:05 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 5-7 from:

[+The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.+]

to:

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.

June 26, 2008, at 04:04 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 5-6 from:

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.

to:

[+The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.+]

June 26, 2008, at 04:04 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-3 from:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3-2.jpg

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3-2-1.jpg

June 26, 2008, at 03:59 PM by sreid -

June 26, 2008, at 03:44 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-6 from:

http://s287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/?action=view&current=Ship3-1.jpg

Performance of Artificial Neural Network Models for the Prediction of Water Levels

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3-2.jpg

June 26, 2008, at 03:13 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-4 from:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3.jpg

to:

http://s287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/?action=view&current=Ship3-1.jpg

June 26, 2008, at 02:37 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-4 from:

(:div style='background-image:url([=http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Matagorda-Ship.jpg=])':)

(:background image='no-repeat url(http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Matagorda-Ship.jpg)' :)

to:

http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Ship3.jpg

June 25, 2008, at 04:14 PM by sreid -

Deleted lines 2-13:

    Markup('background', 'directive',
           '/\\(:background(\\s.*?)?:\\)/e',
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    function Background ($pagename, $opt) { 
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June 25, 2008, at 04:07 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 04:06 PM by sreid -

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(:div style='background-image:url([=http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Matagorda-Ship.jpg=])':)

    Markup('background', 'directive',
           '/\\(:background(\\s.*?)?:\\)/e',
           "Background(\$pagename, ParseArgs^?(PSS('$1')))");

    function Background ($pagename, $opt) { 
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June 25, 2008, at 04:04 PM by sreid -

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to:

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June 25, 2008, at 04:01 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 04:01 PM by sreid -

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to:

(:div style='background=mo repeat-image:url([=http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Matagorda-Ship.jpg=])':) (:background='no-repeat url(http://i287.photobucket.com/albums/ll154/sergiereid/Matagorda-Ship.jpg)' :)

June 25, 2008, at 04:00 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 03:54 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 03:38 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 03:20 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 03:07 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 02:40 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 02:38 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 02:23 PM by sreid -

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to:

(:div style='background-image:url([=http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/~jeff/wallpaper2/baja_mexico_phytoplankton_gulf_of_california_modis_apr26_2001_wall.jpg=])':)

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June 25, 2008, at 02:09 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 01:56 PM by sreid -

June 25, 2008, at 01:48 PM by sreid -

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June 25, 2008, at 01:42 PM by sreid -

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(:div style='background-image:url([=http://lighthouse.tamucc.edu/dnrpub/wikipub/navshiptext.jpg=])':)

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June 25, 2008, at 01:40 PM by sreid -

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(:background WholePage='url()':).

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June 25, 2008, at 01:18 PM by sreid -

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(:background WholePage='url(http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/events/survey/gulf_of_mexico650.jpg)':).

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June 24, 2008, at 05:19 PM by sreid -

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WholePage^?='url(http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/events/survey/gulf_of_mexico650.jpg)':).

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(:background WholePage='url(http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/events/survey/gulf_of_mexico650.jpg)':).

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WholePage^?='url(http://celebrating200years.noaa.gov/events/survey/gulf_of_mexico650.jpg)':).

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June 24, 2008, at 05:06 PM by sreid -

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June 24, 2008, at 04:14 PM by sreid -

Added lines 113-134:

Bird Island

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.97	99.95	99.97	99.9	99.6
Persistence Model	99.96	99.8	99.7	99.0	98.1
Tide Charts	84.3	84.3	78.5	84.3	84.3

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	1.8	2.1	NaN^?	3.5	4.2
Persistence Model	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.8	5.6
Tide Charts	11.1	11.1	12.0	11.1	11.1

June 24, 2008, at 03:23 PM by sreid -

June 24, 2008, at 01:34 PM by sreid -

June 24, 2008, at 01:28 PM by sreid -

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Tide Charts	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0

to:

Tide Charts	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0

Changed lines 65-69 from:

Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

to:

Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Changed lines 78-81 from:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9

to:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.6	97.7	96.5	94.6
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9	96.2	93.9	91.9	89.3
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9

Changed lines 85-92 from:

ANN	2.4	3.8	4.8
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7
Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2

to:

ANN	2.5	3.8	4.8	5.7	6.4	7.1	7.9
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7	6.6	7.5	8.4	9.6
Tide Charts	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9

June 23, 2008, at 04:12 PM by sreid -

June 23, 2008, at 04:11 PM by sreid -

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to:

Changed line 33 from:

to:

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to:

Changed line 76 from:

to:

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to:

June 23, 2008, at 03:40 PM by sreid -

June 23, 2008, at 03:29 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 35-38 from:

ANN	99.3	96.9	93.0	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	98.9	95.9	91.2	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	84.2	79.2	79.2	80.5	80.5	80.5

to:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Changed lines 42-47 from:

ANN	4.5	6.6	8.2	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	5.0	7.1	9.1	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	11.4	12.7	12.7	1.2	1.2	1.2

to:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

June 23, 2008, at 03:24 PM by sreid -

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Rockport

to:

Port Aransas

Changed lines 101-104 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	99.6	99.0	97.9	97.3	95.0	93.2
Persistence Model	99.2	97.8	95.9	94.0	89.7	86.9
Tide Charts	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.6	81.6

Changed lines 108-112 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.4	7.6	8.3
Persistence Model	4.6	5.9	6.9	7.6	9.4	10.4
Tide Charts	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7

June 23, 2008, at 02:41 PM by sreid -

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Tide Charts	15.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5

to:

Tide Charts	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0

Changed lines 30-31 from:

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

to:

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Changed lines 35-38 from:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

to:

ANN	99.3	96.9	93.0	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	98.9	95.9	91.2	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	84.2	79.2	79.2	80.5	80.5	80.5

Changed lines 42-47 from:

ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2

to:

ANN	4.5	6.6	8.2	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	5.0	7.1	9.1	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	11.4	12.7	12.7	1.2	1.2	1.2

Changed lines 65-69 from:

Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2

to:

Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

June 23, 2008, at 02:00 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 27-29 from:

Texas State Aquarium

to:

Bob Hall Pier

Changed lines 48-51 from:

Ingleside

to:

Texas State Aquarium

Changed lines 56-59 from:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9

to:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

Changed lines 63-73 from:

ANN	2.4	3.8	4.8
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7
Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2

Rockport

to:

ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2

Ingleside

Changed lines 78-81 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9

Added lines 85-107:

ANN	2.4	3.8	4.8
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7
Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2

Rockport

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours

June 23, 2008, at 01:19 PM by sreid -

June 19, 2008, at 01:45 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 72-74 from:

Bird Island

to:

Rockport

June 19, 2008, at 01:22 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 57-60 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9

Changed lines 64-71 from:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

to:

ANN	2.4	3.8	4.8
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7
Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2

June 19, 2008, at 01:10 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 48-50 from:

Bird Island

to:

Ingleside

Changed lines 66-91 from:

Tide Charts

to:

Tide Charts

Bird Island

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

June 19, 2008, at 01:07 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 56-59 from:

ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

to:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

Changed lines 63-65 from:

ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2

to:

ANN
Persistence Model
Tide Charts

June 19, 2008, at 12:31 PM by sreid -

June 18, 2008, at 04:57 PM by sreid -

June 18, 2008, at 04:53 PM by sreid -

Added lines 44-64:

Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2

Bird Island

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7

June 18, 2008, at 04:50 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 5-6 from:

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.

to:

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.

Changed lines 12-13 from:

Central Frequency (% within 15cm)

to:

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Changed lines 30-32 from:

Central Frequency (% within 15cm)

to:

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

June 18, 2008, at 04:46 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 3-6 from:

You will find in the tables below a comparison of the ANN performance with the Tide charts and a simple persistence model.

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.

to:

You will find in the tables below a comparison of the ANN performance with the Tide charts and a simple persistence model.

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.

June 18, 2008, at 04:42 PM by sreid -

Changed lines 1-2 from:

Performance of Artificial Neural Network Models for the Prediction of Water Levels

to:

Performance of Artificial Neural Network Models for the Prediction of Water Levels

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Sabine Pass

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Performance of Artificial Neural Network Models for the Prediction of Water Levels

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Performance of Artificial Neural Network Models for the Prediction of Water Levels

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Central Frequency (% within 15cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2	1.2

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Prediction	6 hours (cm)	12 hours (cm)	18 hours (cm)	24 hours (cm)	30 hours (cm)	36 hours (cm)	48 hours (cm)
ANN	6.1	7.1	8.1	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.6
Persistence Model	8.0	9.7	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.6
Tide Charts	15.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5

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Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	6.1	7.1	8.1	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.6
Persistence Model	8.0	9.7	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.6
Tide Charts	15.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5

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Prediction | ANN | Persistence Model | Tide Charts 6 hours 12 hours

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Central Frequency (% within 15cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	97.5	96.0	94.0	92.9	91.7	90.9	89.6
Persistence Model	94.1	91.0	85.5	83.5	79.4	77.1	75.3
Tide Charts	70.4	70.4	70.3	70.3	70.2	70.2	70.2

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours (cm)	12 hours (cm)	18 hours (cm)	24 hours (cm)	30 hours (cm)	36 hours (cm)	48 hours (cm)
ANN	6.1	7.1	8.1	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.6
Persistence Model	8.0	9.7	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.6
Tide Charts	15.0	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5

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Performance of Artificial Neural Network Models for the Prediction of Water Levels

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Performance of Artificial Neural Network Models for the Prediction of Water Levels

You will find in the tables below a comparison of the ANN performance with the Tide charts and a simple persistence model.

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.

Sabine Pass

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Prediction | ANN | Persistence Model | Tide Charts 6 hours 12 hours

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