You will find in the tables below a comparison of the ANN performance with the Tide charts and a simple persistence model.
The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level.
Sabine Pass
Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).
Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours (%) | 12hours (%) | 18 hours (%) | 24 hours (%) | 30 hours (%) | 36 hours (%) | 48 hours (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 97.5 | 96.0 | 94.0 | 92.9 | 91.7 | 90.9 | 89.6 |
| Persistence Model | 94.1 | 91.0 | 85.5 | 83.5 | 79.4 | 77.1 | 75.3 |
| Tide Charts | 70.4 | 70.4 | 70.3 | 70.3 | 70.2 | 70.2 | 70.2 |
Root Mean Square Error (cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours | 12 hours | 18 hours | 24 hours | 30 hours | 36 hours | 48 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 6.1 | 7.1 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.6 |
| Persistence Model | 8.0 | 9.7 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Tide Charts | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 | 15.0 |
Optimized by Sergey Reid
Port Aransas
Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).
Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours (%) | 12hours (%) | 18 hours (%) | 24 hours (%) | 30 hours (%) | 36 hours (%) | 48 hours (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 99.6 | 99.0 | 97.9 | 97.3 | 95.0 | 93.2 | |
| Persistence Model | 99.2 | 97.8 | 95.9 | 94.0 | 89.7 | 86.9 | |
| Tide Charts | 81.5 | 81.5 | 81.5 | 81.5 | 81.6 | 81.6 |
Root Mean Square Error (cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours | 12 hours | 18 hours | 24 hours | 30 hours | 36 hours | 48 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 4.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 8.3 | |
| Persistence Model | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 10.4 | |
| Tide Charts | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
Optimized by Angelica Villarreal
Ingleside
Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).
Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours (%) | 12hours (%) | 18 hours (%) | 24 hours (%) | 30 hours (%) | 36 hours (%) | 48 hours (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.4 | 98.6 | 97.7 | 96.5 | 94.6 |
| Persistence Model | 99.9 | 99.2 | 97.9 | 96.2 | 93.9 | 91.9 | 89.3 |
| Tide Charts | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 | 80.9 |
Root Mean Square Error (cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours | 12 hours | 18 hours | 24 hours | 30 hours | 36 hours | 48 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 2.5 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 7.9 |
| Persistence Model | 3.0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 9.6 |
| Tide Charts | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 |
Optimized by Angelica Villarreal
Texas State Aquarium
Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).
Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours (%) | 12hours (%) | 18 hours (%) | 24 hours (%) | 30 hours (%) | 36 hours (%) | 48 hours (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 99.9 | 99.8 | 99.4 | 98.9 | 98.0 | 97.0 | 95.2 |
| Persistence Model | 99.8 | 98.9 | 97.7 | 96.0 | 93.8 | 91.5 | 88.8 |
| Tide Charts | 80.4 | 80.4 | 80.4 | 80.5 | 80.5 | 80.5 | 80.5 |
Root Mean Square Error (cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours | 12 hours | 18 hours | 24 hours | 30 hours | 36 hours | 48 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 2.8 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 7.6 |
| Persistence Model | 3.5 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 9.7 |
| Tide Charts | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
Optimized by Sergey Reid
Bob Hall Pier
Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).
Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours (%) | 12hours (%) | 18 hours (%) | 24 hours (%) | 30 hours (%) | 36 hours (%) | 48 hours (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 99.5 | 98.6 | 97.3 | 96.3 | 94.8 | 91.0 | |
| Persistence Model | 98.8 | 96.1 | 93.5 | 91.7 | 89.1 | 84.2 | |
| Tide Charts | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 | 81.3 |
Root Mean Square Error (cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours | 12 hours | 18 hours | 24 hours | 30 hours | 36 hours | 48 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 4.3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 8.8 | |
| Persistence Model | 5.1 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 11.6 | |
| Tide Charts | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 | 12.1 |
Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid
Bird Island
Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).
Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours (%) | 12hours (%) | 18 hours (%) | 24 hours (%) | 30 hours (%) | 36 hours (%) | 48 hours (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 99.97 | 99.95 | 99.97 | 99.9 | 99.6 | ||
| Persistence Model | 99.96 | 99.8 | 99.7 | 99.0 | 98.1 | ||
| Tide Charts | 84.3 | 84.3 | 78.5 | 84.3 | 84.3 |
Root Mean Square Error (cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours | 12 hours | 18 hours | 24 hours | 30 hours | 36 hours | 48 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 1.8 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 4.2 | |||
| Persistence Model | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 5.6 | ||
| Tide Charts | 11.1 | 11.1 | 12.0 | 11.1 | 11.1 |
Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot
Port Isabel
Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).
Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours (%) | 12hours (%) | 18 hours (%) | 24 hours (%) | 30 hours (%) | 36 hours (%) | 48 hours (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 99.93 | 99.61 | 99.05 | 97.63 | 96.86 | 95.26 | |
| Persistence Model | 99.7 | 98.37 | 96.67 | 93.71 | 92.09 | 90.32 | |
| Tide Charts | 85.97 | 87.01 | 87.01 | 87.00 | 87.0 | 86.97 |
Root Mean Square Error (cm)
| Prediction | 6 hours | 12 hours | 18 hours | 24 hours | 30 hours | 36 hours | 48 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANN | 4.4 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 7.5 | ||
| Persistence Model | 4.0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 9.3 | |
| Tide Charts | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 10.4 |
Optimized by Angelica Villarreal & Sergey Reid
Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi