You will find in the tables below a comparison of the ANN performance with the Tide charts and a simple persistence model.

The performance is evaluated using a National Ocean Service standard, the Central Frequency of 15 cm for each model/location, i.e. the percentage of predictions that are within 15 cm of the measured water level. The models are evaluated based on a perfect prog approach for the wind predictions. While the performance of the NAM model was verified to be unbiased and of good quality for the stations below, the predictions are not perfect. Actual ANN water level predictions will be lower depending on the accuracy of the NAM wind predictions.

Bird Island

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.97	99.95	99.97	99.9	99.6
Persistence Model	99.96	99.8	99.7	99.0	98.1
Tide Charts	84.3	84.3	78.5	84.3	84.3

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	1.8	2.1		3.5	4.2
Persistence Model	2.5	3.1	3.6	4.8	5.6
Tide Charts	11.1	11.1	12.0	11.1	11.1

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot

Bob Hall Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.5	98.6	97.3	96.3	94.8	91.0
Persistence Model	98.8	96.1	93.5	91.7	89.1	84.2
Tide Charts	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3	81.3

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.3	5.5	6.3	6.9	7.6	8.8
Persistence Model	5.1	7.0	8.1	8.9	9.8	11.6
Tide Charts	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1	12.1

Optimized by Dr. Philippe Tissot & Sergey Reid

Eagle Point

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.25	97.00	94.54	93.12	90.94	89.52	88.22
Persistence Model	95.93	88.40	82.51	78.46	74.57	71.60	68.67
Tide Charts	70.35	70.37	70.38	70.37	70.34	70.29	70.26

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.6	6.5	7.8	8.5	9.2	9.6	10.0
Persistence Model	6.8	10.7	13.6	15.6	17.3	18.4	19.2
Tide Charts	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.1	16.2	16.2

Optimized by Samantha Quisenberry

USCG Freeport

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	98.47	96.19	93.87	92.59	90.84	89.67	88.18
Persistence Model	96.65	91.30	86.90	84.44	80.90	78.25	75.89
Tide Charts	76.21	76.22	76.22	76.16	76.10	76.07	76.05

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	5.5	7.2	8.3	8.8	9.4	9.8	10.2
Persistence Model	6.7	9.4	11.3	12.6	13.9	14.8	15.4
Tide Charts	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0	14.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Galveston Pleasure Pier

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	96.89	94.55	92.02	90.94	89.3	88.56	87.23
Persistence Model	93.54	87.89	82.55	79.84	76.2	73.71	71.36
Tide Charts	70.86	70.87	70.86	70.81	70.8	70.76	70.76

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	6.6	7.9	9.0	9.4	9.9	10.2	10.5
Persistence Model	8.3	11.0	13.5	15.0	16.3	17.2	17.6
Tide Charts	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6	15.6

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Ingleside

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.6	97.7	96.5	94.6
Persistence Model	99.9	99.2	97.9	96.2	93.9	91.9	89.3
Tide Charts	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9	80.9

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	2.5	3.8	4.8	5.7	6.4	7.1	7.9
Persistence Model	3.0	4.6	5.7	6.6	7.5	8.4	9.6
Tide Charts	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9	11.9

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

Manchester Houston

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	96.70	93.29	90.34	88.75	86.88	85.90	84.90
Persistence Model	89.13	79.95	73.94	71.09	64.95	61.45	59.76
Tide Charts	65.58	65.59	65.63	65.63	65.61	65.58	65.60

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	7.4	9.5	10.8	11.5	12.2	12.6	12.9
Persistence Model	10.6	15.1	18.3	20.4	22.7	24.2	25.2
Tide Charts	19.7	19.7	19.6	19.7	19.7	19.7	19.7

Optimized by Cindy Valencia

Packery Channel

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.94	99.70	99.30	98.86	98.08	97.21	95.73
Persistence Model	99.91	98.55	98.66	97.47	96.25	95.05	93.30
Tide Charts	82.67	82.65	82.63	82.63	82.63	82.63	82.62

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	2.4	3.5	4.3	4.9	5.7	6.3	7.2
Persistence Model	2.6	3.8	4.8	5.5	6.3	7.0	7.8
Tide Charts	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4	11.4

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Port Aransas

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.6	99.0	97.9	97.3	95.0	93.2
Persistence Model	99.2	97.8	95.9	94.0	89.7	86.9
Tide Charts	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.5	81.6	81.6

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	4.0	5.1	5.9	6.4	7.6	8.3
Persistence Model	4.6	5.9	6.9	7.6	9.4	10.4
Tide Charts	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7	11.7

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal

Port Arthur

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	98.58	95.76	93.01	91.41	88.96	89.54	88.23
Persistence Model	96.56	91.45	86.13	82.72	78.83	76.23	73.82
Tide Charts	66.64	66.64	66.64	66.61	66.56	66.51	66.49

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN		7.0	8.4	9.1	9.9
Persistence Model	6.5	9.2	11.4	12.9	14.3	15.2	15.6
Tide Charts	15.9	15.9	15.9	15.9	15.9	15.9	15.9

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Port Isabel

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.93	99.61	99.05	98.49	97.63	96.86	95.26
Persistence Model	99.7	98.37	96.67	95.45	93.71	92.09	90.32
Tide Charts	85.97	87.01	87.01	87.01	87.00	87.0	86.97

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN		4.4	5.1	5.7	6.2	6.7	7.5
Persistence Model	4.0	5.7	6.6	7.1	7.9	8.5	9.3
Tide Charts	10.7	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4	10.4

Optimized by Angelica Villarreal & Sergey Reid

Rockport

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 1998. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.88	99.84	99.74	99.31	98.31	97.10	94.86
Persistence Model	99.81	99.38	98.01	96.38	94.21	92.03	88.89
Tide Charts	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.00	80.01	80.00

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	1.9	3.0	3.7	4.6	5.5	6.3	7.4
Persistence Model	2.7	4.2	5.4	6.5	7.5	8.3	9.5
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Sabine Pass

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	97.5	96.0	94.0	92.9	91.7	90.9	89.6
Persistence Model	94.1	91.0	85.5	83.5	79.4	77.1	75.3
Tide Charts	70.4	70.4	70.3	70.3	70.2	70.2	70.2

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	6.1	7.1	8.1	8.5	9.0	9.0	9.6
Persistence Model	8.0	9.7	1.2	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.6
Tide Charts	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0	15.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid

Texas State Aquarium

Model trained on 1 year of hourly data, 2004. The performance is computed based on 4 years of hourly data (2000-2003).

Central Frequency (% within 15 cm)

Prediction	6 hours (%)	12hours (%)	18 hours (%)	24 hours (%)	30 hours (%)	36 hours (%)	48 hours (%)
ANN	99.9	99.8	99.4	98.9	98.0	97.0	95.2
Persistence Model	99.8	98.9	97.7	96.0	93.8	91.5	88.8
Tide Charts	80.4	80.4	80.4	80.5	80.5	80.5	80.5

Root Mean Square Error (cm)

Prediction	6 hours	12 hours	18 hours	24 hours	30 hours	36 hours	48 hours
ANN	2.8	3.7	4.6	5.3	6.1	6.8	7.6
Persistence Model	3.5	5.0	6.0	6.7	7.7	8.6	9.7
Tide Charts	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0	12.0

Optimized by Sergey Reid