From Division of Nearshore Research

Forecasts: TPWDReport2007

Monitoring and Predictive Modeling of Water Temperatures in the Laguna Madre

Study Background:

[1] [2] A joint project with the Coastal Conservation Association (CCA), Texas Parks and Wildlife and the Gulf Intracoastal Canal Association (GICA) to predict water temperatures in the Laguna Madre. Unusually low temperatures can result in substantial fish kills. A model predicting low water temperatures below about 45 F with about 24 hours notice can allow coastal stakeholders to take some measures to try to minimize the fish kills. The prediction model was developed to predict water temperatures in the middle and upper Laguna Madre.

Reports

Executive Summary - 2.5 pages for an overview of the project and model, also part of the full report (74K PDF) [3]

Full Report (3.9M PDF), includes description of modeling methodology all the performance assessment for the model [4]

Texas Parks and Wildlife Department Performance Report - an abbreviated version of the full report (434K PDF) [5]

Full Report Table of Contents

Executive Summary

1. Introduction & Project Objectives
2. Monitoring Platforms: Installation, Equipment & Measurements Analysis
3. Design of Predictive Water Temperature Model
4. NAM Air Temperature Predictions & Adjustments for the Laguna Madre
5. Operational Performance for Bird Island Station Predictions
6. Portability of the Model to TPWD Stations and the Rest of the Laguna Madre
7. Operational Performance for Cold Events
8. Web Based Implementation of the Predictive Model
9. Conclusions and Recommendations
10. Acknowledgements
11. References

Report Appendices:

1. Water Temperature Histories at TPWD Rincon Station (142K PDF) [6]
2. Water Temperature Histories at the TPWD Land Cut Station (176K PDF) [7]

Feedback E-mail: ptissot@lighthouse.tamucc.edu [ptissot@lighthouse.tamucc.edu]

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