Development Page--Not for Official Use

Application of ANN to predict Water Levels in Corpus Christi Bay

                    "Photo Courtesy of NASA"

The The Corpus Christi Estuary was selected for application of ANN predictions because:

• There is an abundance of water level and meterological data available through widespread TCOON stations.
• The estuary is highly navigated and contains sections of the GIWW and the Corpus Christi Ship Channel.
• The land surrounding the estuary is densly populated and therefore many comunities will benefit from an upgrade of the water level forecasting system.

This series of figures shows the need for increased forecast accuracy obtained through ANN pedictions. The following figures show comparisons of traditional harmonic predictions of water level to observed water levels. The data shown is for the TCOON operated Naval Air Station-Corpus Christi (NAS).

A comparison between harmonic forecasts and measured water levels shows that the difference between harmonic (blue) and measured (red) water levels is frequently larger than the tidal range itself.

The water anomaly or difference between measured (red) and harmonically forecasted (blue) water levels regularly shifts from positive to negative by about half a meter during frontal passages in winter spring and fall or Julian Day (JD) 0-120 and JD 280-365.

The Squared wind speed is a better indicator of the effect that the wind will have on the water level anomaly. As can be seen in the above graphic the wind squared is well correlated with the water anomaly and wind is generally recognized as the main non-tidal forcing driving water level changes in Texas. The agreement between harmonic and measured water levels is typically much closer during the summer months with the exception of the passage of tropical storms.

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