Development Page--Not for Official Use

Early Research and Recent Publications Documenting the Application of ANN technique to Water Level Forecasting

ANN Model Tested for Entrance to Galveston Bay

                       "Photo Courtesy of USGS"

Presently the impact of meteorological factors is unaccounted for in water level forecasts in the Gulf of Mexico. To include weather forcing, a linear model and an ANN model were recently developed and tested for the entrance of Galveston Bay (Cox et al., 2002a). The linear model was based on the locally measured wind and a nine-hour lag between the wind forcing and the water level response. The input to the ANN model included east-west and north-south winds, barometric pressure, and wind and tidal forecasts. Both models were found to improve significantly short-term (3-24 hours) predictions of total water levels and the ANN was shown to outperform the linear model particularly in the five to fifteen hour range when including forecasted winds.

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