Forecast Systems at DNR

Quick links: Data Retrieval   History   Existing Software   Data Format

Ideal: This page is an attempt to consolidate [some] various documentation and information of DNR's past and present forecasting/prediction attempts using ANNs. I accept that this page will always be out of date.

Practical: This page contains information and developments for ANN forecasting.

Data Retrieval Examples

Forecasted data retrieval is operational. Here are some quick links to retrieve the last months' worth of predicted vs. measured data at particular locations:

Last 30 days' to next 2 days worth of data (using only 6 hour predictions and a 6 hour interval)

• Corpus Christi Bay
• Bob Hall Pier
• Port Aransas
• Bird Island
• Galveston Bay

Past data comparing predicted and measured data:

Corpus Christi Bay

• 08/01/2006-09/27/2006
• 11/23/2006-12/30/2006

Bob Hall Pier

• 08/01/2006-09/27/2006
• 11/23/2006-12/30/2006

Port Aransas

• 08/01/2006-09/27/2006
• 11/23/2006-12/30/2006

Bird Island

• 08/01/2006-09/27/2006
• 11/23/2006-12/30/2006

Galveston Bay

• 08/01/2006-09/27/2006
• 11/23/2006-12/30/2006

History

Starting in 2000? or earlier, using student workers to construct ANN models to forecast water level, salinity, etc.

Karthik Duraisamy's graduate project - VISTA

Existing software (pre-2007):

• /u3/forecasts/bin/arcimp - archive and import ftp'd data files from NCEP
• /u3/forecasts/bin/arcimp.bak
• /u3/forecasts/bin/fimport - parse forecast data files from NCEP (Scott?)
• /u2/karthik/pharosdb/cgi-bin/ltry - Karthik's attempt at parsing data files from NCEP

Existing folder structure:

• /u3/forecasts/archive/YYYY/WRF-NMM/ - The "Worf" model?
• /u3/forecasts/archive/YYYY/GFS40/ - Global Forecast Systems model archive
• /u3/forecasts/archive/YYYY/MesoEta_ANN_INT - Deprecated? no idea
• /u3/forecasts/archive/YYYY/GFS_ANN_INT - Deprecated? Same as GFS40? Not sure.
• /u3/forecasts/archive/YYYY/TAMUCCneuralnet - Deprecated? Neural net input?

YYYY = Year

Incoming data format(s)

WRF-NMM format

                              GFS (Mapped to AWIPS GRID 212) Output (Interpolated) for 01-16-2007 1200 UTC

                    PortAransas,27.8400,-97.0733,01-16-2007 1200 UTC,3 Hour,1.22957751340129,-9.93892240377216,1030.40388468317,4.27256514962903
PortAransas,27.8400,-97.0733,01-16-2007 1200 UTC,6 Hour,-2.56452034762536,-10.3575548966419,1030.78579249932,4.77288554818779
...
Rockport,28.0250,-97.4833,01-16-2007 1200 UTC,3 Hour,0.915067136348285,-7.18202472656242,1031.22711368936,1.73753335795976
Rockport,28.0250,-97.4833,01-16-2007 1200 UTC,6 Hour,-1.55015577602925,-7.14170996680128,1031.54290672399,1.76999610399844

• Station name
• Latitude
• Longitude
• Date/time format
• Forecast
• Wind U
• Wind V
• Barometric Pressure
• Air Temperature

Database Format

We're storing the prediction information in DNR's newer database format.